Parlay Bets in the NFL

Introduction

In gambling terms,“parlay“ means to bet on at least two events, letting the winnings ride after every win. Usually you lose, but if you win, and depending in part on how many occasions were parlayed, you’ll win big.

In sports betting, the bettor can parlay wins even if the games occur simultaneously. This can be achieved either“off the board“ or using parlay cards. This page address both methods and included three common types of parlay cards. What I hope to convey through this webpage is that randomly creating selections on parlay cards is a lousy approach to bet sports and results in a high house edge. However, the sharp bettor can take advantage of line moves off common margins of victory from the NFL and put on a powerful advantage, of 30% or more, on half point parlay cards.

Allow me to make a disclaimer to choose any win probabilities and expected returns on this page with a grain of salt. I had to make assumptions regarding the way point spreads on parlay cards were intentionally moved to either an integer or not an integer, depending upon the card. My data also doesn’t reflect the truth that traces frequently go from the time that the parlay card is published to the period of the match. On the 1 hand, the card manufacturer may carefully place the stage spreads to minimize player edge. On the flip side, it’s an established fact that closing lines are sharper than opening lines, along with the participant can make the most of those line moves by putting in parlay cards at the last minute. All things considered, I think there are large advantages to be gained with half stage parlay cards, but the advantages can’t be calculated precisely. They are smaller or greater.

After reading this page, skeptics may wonder if it’s so simple to beat half stage parlay cards, why is not everyone doing this? A good deal of bettors are. Sports publications are nervous about taking thembecause they really do tend to get hammered on precisely the same side of certain hot games. However, I imagine to many professional gamblers, they Aren’t a workable advantage play since:

It is hard to get a great deal of cash down. The most you can usually bet on a single parlay card is $200, and even a bet of $100 may set off red flags if all the choices are correlated on the sexy sides.
They are time consuming to bubble .
It’s feast or famine. Generally speaking, the more legs the player makes, the greater the advantage. By way of instance, an 8-leg half stage parlay pays at most 200 to 1. Of course, these long-shot bets usually lose.

You’ll have to decide for yourself whether parlay cards will be for you. However, if you do bet them, hopefully you will learn a thing or 2 from my analysis.

Methodology

All win percentages in this page are based on the 4,950 matches played in the 1994 to 2012 seasons. Except as noted, all selections refer to betting against the spread. I really don’t advise betting totals on parlay cards unless there’s a significant line motion.

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